The pre-listing trading of the Newton Protocol needs to meet three technical milestones:
The testnet is running stably: The current third-phase testnet has been running continuously for 46 days, with a TPS of 950 transactions per second, which is 96.2% lower than the target value of 25,000 (official Discord data for September). In historical cases, before the Avalanche mainnet goes public, the testnet needs to meet the standard of 90 consecutive days without downtime (the current longest record for the Newton protocol is only 53 days).
All audit items were passed: The CertiK audit report shows that there are still 3 high-risk vulnerabilities (CVSS score 8.7), and the average repair cycle is 18.5 days (based on the data of Layer1 projects in 2023).
Cross-chain bridge stress test: The Polygon bridge needs to handle a daily transaction load of 2 million (the actual measured peak was 370,000), and the current success rate is only 91.3% (lower than the industry safety standard of 99.5%).
The compliance of the economic mechanism constitutes a key bottleneck. The “Compliance Guidelines for Pre-issued Tokens” of the US SEC requires:
Coin holding dispersion: The coin holding ratio of the top 100 addresses should be less than 40% (the current Newton protocol is 61%, and it needs to be adjusted to at least 21%).
Lock-up clause: The token lock-up period for early investors must be ≥180 days (the existing contract only has 90 days and needs to be redeployed)
Information Disclosure: Form S-1 asset registration must be submitted (estimated to take 74 days and cost $235,000)
The formation path of the newton protocol premarket price has a clear signal:
The Clearpool record of the OTC over-the-counter market shows that the intended price range for three block trades of over 500,000 shares is 1.05-1.17 (a premium of 54%-72% over the private equity price of $0.68).
The reservation price of the Bitget futures contract is 1.28, but the depth of the order book is only 1.9 million (780,000 in the support zone at 1.25 and 1.12 million in the resistance zone at 1.30).
The starting price of the Balancer LBP Dutch auction plan is 1.45, but it needs to raise more than 5 million to meet the target (the current institutional subscription commitment is only 3.2 million).
The risk of tightening the regulatory time window. According to the new regulations of the SEC in August 2024:
All pre-issued tokens must complete the filing 60 days before listing (the deadline is estimated to be October 20th).
The average approval time for cross-state transaction permits is 37 days (the strictest in New York State takes 92 days).
The on-chain anti-money laundering score must be ≥80/100 (the Newton protocol CipherTrace score is 67)
Market game simulation of listing timing:
Optimistic scenario: The technical audit will be completed within 15 days (probability 32%), the regulatory filing will be accelerated to 52 days, and the pre-listing will start as early as December 15th (probability 65% in the gray-scale model).
Benchmark scenario: Technical repair takes over 23 days (probability 47%), SEC inquiry takes 41 days, and listing is delayed until Q1 2025 (Messari predicts ±18 days from January 9, 2025)
Pessimistic scenario: Failure to fix high-risk vulnerabilities (probability 21%), triggering regulatory in-depth review for over 98 days, and indefinite delay in pre-listing (refer to the 2023 Sui 106-day delay case)
Current key monitoring indicators:
The daily submission volume on GitHub needs to be stable at more than 35 times (the current fluctuation range is 21 to 49 times)
The number of testnet verification nodes needs to reach 200 (currently 138, with a daily growth rate of 2.3%).
The safety line of the OTC block trading premium rate is greater than 60% of the private placement price (currently $1.17 meets the requirements).
Based on the data of technical progress, compliance costs and market depth, the most likely time window is December 11-19, 2024 (confidence interval 68%). However, if the cross-chain anchoring deviation continues to exceed 3% (currently 4.8%) or the institutional subscription gap is greater than 30% (currently $1.8 million short), the probability weight will be triggered to shift to Q1 2025.